Conditional cooperation: The EU’s ‘constructive agenda’ and Turkey’s insurance policies within the Japanese Mediterranean

As soon as once more, relations with Turkey took heart stage on the European Union’s summit assembly. ”We’re able to put extra concrete proposals on the desk to have a extra steady, extra predictable relationship with Turkey”, stated Charles Michel after the assembly. Find out how to take care of Erdogan’s Turkey? has turn out to be an everyday agenda merchandise when EU leaders convene. 

Whereas Ankara’s gradual sliding to an authoritarian order was the main focus, international and safety points associated to Turkey have turn out to be the primary problem. In step with this, the official Council agenda didn’t point out “Turkey”, as an alternative referring to the “Japanese Mediterranean”, 

For the European Union, the conflicts in and across the Japanese Mediterranean have turn out to be a political top-priority. By a hair’s breath, Athens and Ankara got here near partaking in a navy confrontation final yr. Cyprus additionally has stakes within the regional dispute. Turkey has deployed troops within the north of the island ever because the forceful partition relationship again to 1974. Of a more moderen date are variations over maritime claims between Ankara and Nicosia. 

Cyprus and Greece are each EU member states. The European Union has totally taken sides with them of their conflicts with Turkey. By so doing, Brussels has turn out to be a celebration within the dispute. From an EU- perspective, at least the integrity of the exterior borders of the Union is at stake within the battle with Ankara.     

At the moment, the standard of Turkey’s EU relations depends upon the state of affairs of Turkish-Greek relations. The Europeans have created a political connection by linking progress of their relations with Turkey to Turkish conduct – or good conduct, to be extra concrete – within the maritime problems with the Japanese Mediterranean. This conditionality runs like a typical thread by means of official EU statements. 

The supply to Turkey is “a constructive agenda, however conditional” says Charles Michel. “It implies that we hope Turkey will preserve a reasonable conduct, constructive conduct”. When the President of the European Council says “constructive conduct”, he’s not referring to Erdogan’s home politics. After all, he’s conscious of the human rights violations, the draconian clampdown towards the opposition, and to prime the collection of intolerant provocations, Ankara’s withdrawal from the Istanbul Conference on Stopping Violence towards Girls. However for Brussels, these aren’t the decisive factors. An essential takeaway from the summit has been that for the EU, what Erdogan does inside Turkey’s personal borders is of secondary significance solely.

Ankara’s conduct within the Japanese Mediterranean is the important thing determinant of EU-policies vis-à-vis Erdogan. “If Turkey doesn’t transfer ahead constructively, if it returns to unilateral actions or provocations, specifically within the Japanese Mediterranean, in fact, we might droop the cooperation”, stated European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen. 

The federal government in Ankara has not overheard the admonitions and reacted with what observers have termed a “allure offensive”. In contrast with final yr, the scenario within the Japanese Mediterranean has calmed down. Erdogan’s choice to not dispatch Turkish analysis vessels into disputed waters is the primary motive for the détente. A moratorium of types governs Greek-Turkish relations. After the near-escalation and drama of final yr, the current tranquillity could also be termed successful story of European, and foremost German diplomatic interventions. 

Following years of standstill, Athens and Ankara have resumed their bilateral talks. A gathering of international ministers is scheduled for mid-April. Hypothesis is rife {that a} Mitsotakis-Erdogan summit may very well be the following step on the bumpy path in the direction of trans-Aegean rapprochement. 

The longer term will present whether or not, or for a way lengthy, Erdogan is ready to sacrifice his well-communicated maritime aspirations in a trade-off for higher relations with the European Union.  

In the meantime, sticking to the carrot and stick method the summit has resolved to kick-start talks with Ankara on three fundamental matters: the modernization of the Customs Union, the growth of high-level political talks and migration. Each side comply with the necessity to discuss in these three areas. Each side additionally agree that these talks are of their mutual curiosity. 

If there may be anyone space in EU-Turkey relations that deserves the win-win-tag, it’s the modernization of the Customs Union. Additionally: If it weren’t for the Turkish-Greek strife, cooperation on the refugee problem would prime the record of EU-Turkey diplomacy. It’s right here that Europe’s supply of a “constructive agenda” is most blatant. Regardless of the European criticism thrown at Erdogan’s Turkey, EU leaders hardly miss a chance to applaud Ankara’s hospitality in the direction of the almost 4 million Syrian refugees who’ve settled within the nation. Brussels is prepared to channel new funds to Turkey in an effort to thrust back a brand new migration circulation from Anatolia to Europe.

Importantly, additionally the talks on migration are dominated by a basic caveat. The summit conclusions state that each one engagement with Ankara would occur “in a phased, proportionate and reversible method”. On this enumeration, the time period “reversible” is decisive. In coping with Turkey, the EU has determined to maintain a backdoor open, an choice to maneuver away from the talks or to terminate them.  This feature would come into impact ought to Ankara transfer away from the EU’s overreaching expectations regarding peace and stability within the Japanese Mediterranean. Or put otherwise: Ought to Erdogan resume the explorations in disputed waters, Brussels would pull the plug. 

The instances when the EU mentioned eventualities resulting in Turkey’s membership are historical past. In as we speak’s dealings with Turkey, normative values don’t have any place. The EU is appearing on the maxim of Realpolitik solely. Mentions of human rights and democracy have degenerated to lip service. “The EU now sees us nearly like Russia”, says retired Turkish Ambassador Oguz Demiralp: “Let Turkey do what it desires to do until it hurts me.”