Egypt works to change Turkey’s Libya street map

Dec 31, 2020

Turkey has been insisting on a Libya technique that requires the all-out defeat of one of many warring Libyan factions, however current Egyptian diplomatic efforts have revealed the vulnerabilities of Ankara’s strategy. 

In a shocking outreach, Egypt dispatched a high-level delegation to Tripoli on Dec. 28 to Libya’s Authorities of Nationwide Accord; Cairo has been supporting Libya’s jap forces commander Khalifa Hifter. The newly initiated talks between the 2 sides, which embody plans for the reopening of the Egyptian diplomatic mission in Tripoli and resumption of mutual flights, have the potential to spoil Ankara’s positive factors within the Libyan battle, the place Turkish navy assist has tipped the stability in favor of the Authorities of Nationwide Accord towards the Hifter-led forces, that are additionally backed by the United Arab Emirates.

The go to got here amid a current showdown between Ankara and Hifter. Talking throughout independence day celebrations Dec. 24, Hifter known as on his forces to “clear the nation” of Turkish forces following the Turkish parliament’s approval to increase the deployment of Turkish troops in war-torn Libya. 

“There will probably be no safety or peace so long as the boots of the Turkish navy are desecrating our immaculate soil,” Hifter stated.

Turkey’s response was fast. On Dec. 27, Turkish Protection Minister Hulusi Akar, accompanied by the highest navy brass, paid an unannounced go to to Libya. “They can not discover a place to flee within the occasion of such a transfer,” Akar stated in response to Hifter’s threats. “Hifter and people who assist him ought to know that any try and assault Turkish navy personnel will render them a authentic goal,” he was quoted as saying by Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Information Company.

Because the confrontation prompted fears of latest clashes, Egypt, which additionally voiced related threats towards Turkey within the face of a potential Turkish-backed Authorities of Nationwide Accord navy operation just a few months in the past, introduced an sudden adroitness to the heated scene by a sequence of diplomatic maneuvers. 

A delegation from the Egyptian International Ministry paid a go to to Tripoli on Dec. 28, holding 5 high-profile conferences with the highest political and navy officers of the Authorities of Nationwide Accord, together with International Minister Mohamed Siala. The outreach got here after the top of Egypt’s Common Intelligence Service, Abbas Kamel, had visited Benghazi on Dec. 19, throughout which era he assured Hifter that Egyptian navy and political assist for Libya’s stability would proceed. 

The Tripoli go to marks a brand new web page in ties between Cairo and the Authorities of Nationwide Accord. The delegation’s schedule was additionally outstanding because it included a gathering with Inside Minister Fateh Bashagha, who, regardless of assembly with Egyptian officers this week, is understood for his shut ties with Ankara. Bashagha offered the delegation a portray by a Libyan artist.

This first official go to from Cairo to Tripoli hints at a brand new period in ties between Cairo and the Authorities of Nationwide Accord. In line with the Tripoli authorities’s International Ministry, the officers mentioned the implementation of the Oct. 23 cease-fire, the result of UN-mediated navy and safety talks between warring factions and confidence-building measures. Either side additionally determined to instantly begin preparations for the reopening for the Egyptian mission in Tripoli and a resumption of flights.

Following the go to, Egyptian International Minister Sameh Shoukri held a cellphone dialog with Siala, stressing the go to has been an necessary milestone to advance cooperation between the 2 sides and increasing his gratitude for the Authorities of Nationwide Accord’s heat welcome.

The go to was even welcomed by Egypt’s archenemy in Libya, the Justice and Development Social gathering, the political wing of the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood. The group stated in an announcement that either side should work collectively for the soundness of Libya regardless of their variations; the group has beforehand solely relied on Qatari and Turkish assist. 

Whether or not the current contacts between Cairo and Tripoli will scale back Turkey’s affect over the Authorities of Nationwide Accord stays an open query. Nonetheless, Egypt has clearly strengthened its pivotal function within the reconciliation course of. Cairo is attempting to construct belief in its ties with the Authorities of Nationwide Accord whereas maintaining the specter of navy power alive. 

The Authorities of Nationwide Accord, in flip, may need seen the go to as an official recognition by Egypt, which has lengthy been supporting Tripoli’s rival within the battle. Equally, Turkish officers could be pondering that Egypt is transferring nearer to Ankara’s stance by lastly acknowledging the Tripoli authorities’s internationally acknowledged standing, which Turkey has lengthy been selling. But Egypt prefers to remain out of legitimacy discussions between the rival Libyan factions. Moreover, the diplomatic outreach signifies that Egypt has prolonged its affect to the nation’s western areas which have been below Turkey’s hinterland up to now. 

By presumably serving to create a brand new stability of energy on the bottom, the transfer stands out as a hit on Egypt’s half. By establishing ties with the Tripoli authorities with out severing its ties with forces in Benghazi and Tobruk, Cairo is making an intimidating entrance into an enviornment the place Turkey has been attempting to entrench its political, navy and monetary affect and forcing the Authorities of Nationwide Accord factions to take Cairo into consideration of their future choices.

In truth, it’s not the primary time Egypt has leapfrogged Turkey within the Libyan discipline. The sport-changing transfer got here in August when Cairo hosted the UN-brokered cease-fire talks between the rival Libyan teams. The newest go to signifies a brand new stage on this coverage.

In line with the Egyptian media, the high-level go to has additionally aimed toward stopping a potential navy operation by the Authorities of Nationwide Accord towards the strategically vital Sirte and al-Jufra areas managed by the Hifter forces. Egyptian officers reportedly consider that Turkey and the Authorities of Nationwide Accord had been in preparation for a sudden navy push in Libya. 

Jalel Harchaoui, a researcher specializing on Libya on the Clingendael Institute in The Hague, believes that Egypt is aiming at each normalizing ties with the Tripoli authorities and attempting to avert a potential navy offensive towards Sirte and the nation’s oil crescent.

Harchaoui stated he thinks the go to is an extra indication that Egypt is aligning its Libya insurance policies with Russia, drifting away from the United Arab Emirates for the reason that Tripoli blockade.

“Within the months previous [Hifter’s] April 2019 assault on Tripoli, each Cairo and Moscow had been of the opinion that the transfer was going to show counterproductive. However Abu Dhabi went forward and carried out a big air marketing campaign in assist of [Hifter’s] offensive,” Harchaoui informed Al-Monitor. “Since that cut-off date, Cairo has felt extra snug with Moscow’s sense of realism than Abu Dhabi’s cussed absolutism.” 

Harchaoui stated Moscow has been working quietly and regularly to render Hifter “much less and fewer indispensable.”

Though Cairo and Moscow do not agree on each element, the Russian “strategy makes way more sense” to Egypt as an alternative of the UAE’s “inflexible philosophy,” Harchaoui stated.

“Proper now, very concretely talking, Egypt needs to keep away from a Turkish-backed Authorities of Nationwide Accord offensive into Sirte and the oil crescent,” he added.

Harchaoui additionally stated the Emirati coverage was doomed to fail from the get-go given Turkey’s sturdy navy engagement within the nation’s northwest. “Egyptians would like to delay struggle and, as an alternative, revive financial ties with Tripoli,” he stated.

Nonetheless, Harchaoui stated he believes Hifter’s energy shouldn’t be underestimated, contemplating that the strongman remains to be receiving navy assist from a number of navy bases in western Egypt.

In sum, Egypt is attempting to focus its efforts to strengthen its affect over the political settlement course of in Libya with out essentially altering its viewpoint on the Libyan actors. Egypt clearly doesn’t need to see Turkey and the Qatar-backed Muslim Brotherhood flip into a serious power in its western neighbor. Egypt seems to comprehend that Turkey has the higher hand in terms of the battlefield and thus is attempting to curb Turkish affect by diplomacy with out partaking into navy battle. In the meantime, the rival Libyan factions additionally appear to be acknowledging Egypt’s simple function within the battle. 

Turkey’s insistence on an strategy that is determined by an all-out victory of the Authorities of Nationwide Accord and all-out defeat of Hifter additionally facilitates this Egyptian technique. Aiming to strengthen their worldwide standing, the Authorities of Nationwide Accord factions’ efforts to diversify their ties with regional and international powers, together with Egypt, have been casting doubts on Ankara’s technique, which is to show its growing navy presence in western Libya into a trump card to safe its function in future Libya negotiations.

Flourishing ties between Egypt and the Authorities of Nationwide Accord additionally complicate Turkey’s efforts to safe its positive factors within the Libyan discipline, together with the maritime demarcation take care of the Authorities of Nationwide Accord in November 2019. The accord, which grew to become a mainstay of the Turkish claims within the jap Mediterranean, stays with out parliamentary ratification.