How A lot Voter Fraud Was There?

Voter fraud is a big and rising drawback in the USA, and there may be good motive to suppose that it exploded in 2020 on account of (amongst different issues) unprecedented numbers of mail-in ballots and intentionally lax controls in lots of states. John Lott has now produced a statistical evaluation that means substantial voter fraud in Fulton County, Georgia and Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. Lott’s conclusion is that his evaluation suggests a complete of greater than 55,000 fraudulent votes in these two counties. Lott’s paper is embedded under, and his statistical calculations are specified by element. You may consider them for your self.

Lott’s methodology is straightforward and moderately elegant: he compares absentee votes in precincts in Fulton County, for instance, with adjoining precincts in neighboring counties. He additionally controls for demographics. Since voting is finished on the precinct degree, whereas counting was performed on the county degree, and since there isn’t a evident motive why precincts throughout the road from each other ought to present considerably completely different outcomes, the method is sensible.

However the proof continues to be circumstantial. One issue on this yr’s election in Georgia is that unattended poll containers had been arrange, however solely in closely Democratic areas. I don’t know whether or not all of them had been in Fulton County, however I imagine a number of them had been. Anybody may drop any variety of ballots into these containers. Why the state’s Secretary of State, a Republican, agreed to such an association, which nearly cries out for fraud to be dedicated, is anybody’s guess. However he did.

The Democrats will argue, in fact, that turnout was terribly excessive in final yr’s election as a result of their voters had been motivated and so they did a great job of driving turnout. Mail-in voting additionally predictably elevated turnout, fraud apart. Analyses like Lott’s can solid doubt on whether or not such benign explanations can account for Joe Biden’s “win,” however there isn’t a manner they are going to end result within the election being overturned. At this level, even when Republicans had been in a position to present how, and by whom, fraud was perpetrated in varied states, which possible would require confessions from Democratic operatives, it’s too late to forestall Biden’s inauguration.

What’s going to occur, nonetheless, is that Joe Biden will take workplace underneath a cloud of uncertainty. In line with the polls, near half of the nation doubts that he really gained the election. His ailing well being and psychological decline would make him a lame duck in any occasion, however the extra cloud over the legitimacy of his election will erode his authority nonetheless additional.

Over the following two years, the election shall be investigated and books shall be written. Some will argue that Donald Trump really gained the election, whereas others will attempt to present that Biden’s victory was professional. In all probability, the query won’t ever be definitively resolved, however the questions on Biden’s legitimacy in all probability will develop.

Will that state of affairs result in calls for for electoral reform in order that future elections don’t finish in a cloud of doubt? I hope so, however I doubt it, a minimum of in states the place Democrats have substantial energy. The Democrats like voter fraud. That has been true for a very long time. In 2020, they noticed how useful to their trigger lax voting procedures, that each allow fraud and make it arduous if not unattainable to show, could be. They’ll battle tooth and nail to protect their fraud benefit in future elections. All of which may make the bitterness over final yr’s election a gentle preview of issues to come back.

Right here is John Lott’s paper: