It now appears inevitable that the lockdown will worsen earlier than it will get higher for South Africa. After dropping floor within the vaccine race, the nation can be heading into its colder winter months – that means {that a} third wave of COVID-19 is nearly as good as unavoidable. Certainly, Worth Waterhouse Coopers (PWC) predicts a rollercoaster experience for Mzansi all through 2021.
Ups, downs, and an finish in sight: Forecast lockdown dates for 2021
The monetary specialists on the highly-renowned multinational have revealed their ‘anticipated financial eventualities’ for the yr forward. The group has discovered a consensus on what it feels are the very best and worst-case lockdown forecasts, whereas additionally producing a ‘baseline determine’ – which serves as the center floor.
Their analysis signifies what a route out of lockdown might appear like for SA. Nonetheless, no person ought to anticipate us to take a linear path to Stage 1 and past: PWC say a backward step is required ‘to mitigate a resurgence of the virus‘:
“Regardless of the roll-out of a vaccine programme, medical specialists agree that the tempo of vaccinations won’t allow us to keep away from the third wave. The severity of this mid-year wave, and the accompanying strictness of related lockdowns, will immediately decide the character of our financial restoration.”
Leaving lockdown – three doable eventualities for South Africa
What’s the best-case state of affairs?
The financial analysts have revealed this desk, to assist us visualise how the rest of the yr may play out. On the ‘upside’, it’s forecast that each one lockdown restrictions could possibly be eliminated by October, and solely a slight shift to Stage 3 laws can be wanted to counter the third wave. Nonetheless, there’s additionally a predicted ‘draw back’…

What’s the worst-case state of affairs?
If the worst occurs and instances slide uncontrolled early doorways, any transfer to Stage 2 in March could possibly be abruptly halted, ushering in four-to-five months of ‘harsher lockdown restrictions’ – together with a quick return to the dreaded Stage 5 state of affairs.
“The upside state of affairs sees a much less strict lockdown throughout winter 2021 — resulting from vaccination successes — and likewise an entire lockdown exit firstly of the fourth quarter. In flip, the draw back state of affairs assumes a extra extreme an infection degree in the course of the third wave and no exit from the lockdown till 2022.”
Lockdown forecast for SA: Issues trying ‘a lot better’ from September
The ‘baseline’ predictions additionally pitch a tricky slog via winter, with out having to face the extremes of Stage 5. Very like the draw back, it additionally exhibits that restrictions will stay in place till 2022. From September onwards, not one of the outlooks say that South Africa can be working at something more durable than Stage 1, which is *one thing* of a silver lining.
“The baseline state of affairs sees lockdown restrictions ease additional in March (to Stage 2) adopted by a return to the stricter Stage 3 in Might, to fight the third wave of COVID-19, peaking at Stage 4 in July. Whereas a subsequent easing in restrictions is anticipated because the winter thaws, SA is anticipated to stay in Stage 1 lockdown from September in the direction of year-end.”