Myanmar’s neighbor Thailand unlikely to toughen stance on coup

Article content material

BANGKOK — Thailand has barely hardened its language on Myanmar by saying it’s “gravely involved” about escalating bloodshed since a Feb. 1 coup, however shut army ties and fears of a flood of refugees imply it’s unlikely to go additional, analysts say.

That leaves Thailand out of step with some members of the 10-strong Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as they search to ramp up stress on the junta, however may additionally place it as a doable mediator.

“(Thailand’s place) is tough, however I feel there is a chance as a result of we’ve develop into an vital accomplice,” Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn College, instructed Reuters.

The closeness of the Thai and Myanmar armies was underscored by a request from Myanmar’s junta chief, Min Aung Hlaing, to Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha to “help democracy” inside days of ousting elected chief Aung San Suu Kyi.

Prayuth, who voiced that help, had himself seized energy in a 2014 coup when military chief, earlier than taking up his present civilian function in 2019 and rejecting opposition accusations that the vote was manipulated.

The private relationship started a lot earlier: inside armies that seem to have lengthy put behind them the historic rivalry between nations that was referred to as Burma and Siam.

Article content material

In 2018, Min Aung Hlaing was awarded Thailand’s King Grand Cross of the Most Exalted Order of the White Elephant “in honor of the help he has proven for the Thai army,” the Bangkok Put up stated on the time.

BROTHERHOOD

“For them, the army brotherhood may be very, essential,” stated Lalita Hingkanonta, a historical past professor at Thailand’s Kasetsart College.

“I don’t suppose that the escalation of violence will change the choice of the Thai authorities to just accept extra refugees…I feel they only need to be pals with Myanmar extra.”

Thailand doubtlessly has extra at stake in Myanmar than every other member of ASEAN, because it shares a 2,400-km (1,500-mile) border that can also be Myanmar’s longest with any neighbor.

The geographical place, and a convention of cautious diplomacy have been causes for its specific care in remarks on the coup – solely toughening its wording barely after the civilian dying toll topped 500 in Myanmar’s crackdown on anti-coup protesters.

Thailand’s wording has nonetheless been a lot milder than that of ASEAN democracies Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore.

The border dangers have been highlighted by a surge of a number of thousand refugees this week fleeing bombing by Myanmar’s forces of ethnic Karen rebels, an exodus harking back to the tens of hundreds who fled Myanmar’s wars in earlier many years.

Though Thailand denied that the most recent refugees have been being pushed again, they complained of getting been blocked by Thai border guards, whereas a neighborhood Thai official instructed a gathering that it was official coverage to bar their entry.

Article content material

GESTURES

Whereas Thailand would possibly come underneath diplomatic stress to just accept refugees or take a harder stance, Lalita stated Prayuth’s authorities was unlikely to be moved.

“They might do one thing to reply to the worldwide stress, they’d do some small issues, simply to point out that, hey, we’re responding very nicely to your concern. However that’s it.”

Enterprise hyperlinks are additionally sturdy.

Overseas direct funding by Thai companies ranks behind solely China and Singapore, with greater than $11 billion accredited since 1988.

Annual cross-border commerce stood at greater than $9 billion in 2019 and lots of Thai companies depend on Myanmar migrant employees – who formally no 1.6 million.

Thailand issues much more for Myanmar, accounting for practically 1 / 4 of exports in 2019, largely pure fuel.

However Thailand was unlikely to make use of its potential financial leverage with any sanctions on commerce, stated Piti Srisangnam, of the ASEAN Research Heart at Chulalongkorn College.

He recommended Thailand would possibly finest pursue diplomacy behind the scenes, to attempt to encourage Myanmar’s generals to curb violence and launch talks with ousted civilians now locked up or branded as traitors.

“When you’ve got one pal you’ve recognized for a really very long time, and someday he commits homicide, it doesn’t imply you gained’t be pals with him, proper?” he stated.

“You might be nonetheless pals, however one of the best factor is to speak to him, to point out that the factor he has finished may be very unsuitable.” (Writing by Kay Johnson; Modifying by Matthew Tostevin and Clarence Fernandez)