There shall be loads of commentary about what appears to be the Democrats’ sweep of the Georgia runoff elections. Scott has already offered an insightful take.
Nonetheless, I believe probably the most concise evaluation got here per week earlier than the election from my Georgia supply, a well-placed Republican in that state. He instructed me:
In a 50/50 state the place some proportion of Republicans are refusing to vote as a result of they suppose their vote gained’t depend, it’s not arduous to determine what is going to occur.
My supply accurately predicted the result of the Georgia vote in November, as properly. He based mostly his prediction that Joe Biden would edge out President Trump on feedback from some conventional Republican voters. They instructed him they wouldn’t vote for Trump as a result of they’re sad together with his efficiency concerning the coronavirus.
My supply based mostly his prediction that each Republican candidates would lose the runoff on feedback from Trump voters. They instructed him they didn’t suppose their vote would depend.
Thus, in each elections, some proportion of Republicans didn’t help the occasion. In November, it was a some portion of the historically conservative section. In January, it was some portion of the Trumpian section.
It’s one factor to lose votes as a result of a president is perceived as not performing properly. It’s one other to lose votes as a result of that president causes voters to consider, stupidly, that their votes gained’t depend. The previous is unlucky. The latter is heinous.